For Biden to win he is going to have to duplicate his record turnout performance of 2020

In 2020 Donald J. Trump (R) received more votes than any previous Presidential candidate in the nation's history. Trump received 74,223,975 votes in 2020. That is over 11 million voters more than the 62,984,828 votes he received in 2016 when he defeated former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton (D). Trump won the electoral college vote in 2016 but lost the popular vote to Clinton. Trump's 2020 performance bested Hillary's 2016 numbers by over 8 million votes.

Hillary R. Clinton received in 65,853,514 votes in 2016. In 2012 Barack H. Obama received 65,915,795 votes, that is 62,281 more votes than Hillary did four years later. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had 60,933,504 votes in the losing effort. Obama had coasted to victory in 2008 gathering 69,498,516 votes - 3,582,721 more votes than he had four years later in 2012. Republican John McCain received 59,948,323 votes in 2008.

According to the numbers, since 2008 the number of Republican voters participating in the election has increased 1.64% from 2008 to 2012, 3.37% from 2012 to 2016, and 17.84% from 2016 to 2020.

The problem for Trump and the Republicans is that Joseph R. Biden received 81,283,501 votes – more than any president in history.

According to the numbers, since 2008 the number of Democratic voters participating in the election decreased from 2008 to 2012 by 5.15% and decreased again by less than .01% in 2016. Biden's 81,238,501 voters represents an incredible 23.48% increase for Democratic turnout, sets a new all time record for votes cast in an American election and is opposite to the previous trendline.

Prior to 2020 the best performance by any presidential candidate was Obama's 69,498,516 in 2008. The challenge for Biden is somehow holding on to those over 11,739,985 Democratic voters who have never voted before in any presidential election prior to 2020. It is difficult for Presidents to hold on to their supporters for re-election. Even Obama slipped 5.15% from his first term to his second.

While Democrats are perplexed as to how they can get those voters to come back out and vote in 2024, some Republicans suspect that voter fraud played a role in that record Democratic turnout in 2020.

Polling has Trump performing much better than he was doing at this time in both 2020 and 2016. Of the last nine national polls, Trump was leading in five, Biden led in two, and two showed the race tied. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump leading Biden 45.4% to 44.5%.

It is even better for Trump in the swing states.

In Arizona Trump leads Biden 48.3% to 43.7. In Nevada Trump leads 48.3% to 43.0. In Wisconsin it is virtually tied at 47.4% for Trump to 47.3% for Biden. Michigan is similar with Trump at 47.0% to 46.7% for Biden. Trump leads in Pennsylvania 47.8% to 45.5% for Biden. Similarly Trump leads in Georgia 48.5% to 43.7% for Biden. All of these were states that Biden won in 2020. North Carolina is the only Trump state that is considered remotely in play this time around and Trump is leading by 5.4 points there. A June Fox News polls has Biden leading Trump by just one point in Virginia (a state Biden won handily in 2020). Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire are other states where the GOP is considering expanding the field.

Biden is going to have to mobilize that record Democratic turnout achieved in 2020 if he wants to hold on to the seat.

To connect with the author of this story, or to comment, email brandonmreporter@gmail.com